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Monday, October 17, 2022.
Today's newsletter is by Brian Sozzi, an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Read this and more market news on the go with Yahoo Finance App.
"Damn, this is going be a tough few more months for the economy and markets."
That's what I was thinking as our very Jennifer Schonberger chatted exclusively on Friday with San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly.
It's not that Daly provided anything markets haven't heard elsewhere from Fed officials in recent months. Rather, it was the matter-of-fact tone around potentially moving interest rates to the 4.5% to 5% range and the stickiness of inflation.
I have been struck by the tone of the economy elsewhere, too.
I just spoke at length with Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus. Mr. Marcus may be a 93-year-old billionaire, but by no means is he mailing it in.
Marcus remains very active in helping small businesses, is plugged into all things politics (yes, he was a Trump supporter), and keeps a close eye on how Home Depot is performing. Marcus flat-out told me that inflation is going to crush the economy and that regulations are strangling small businesses.
Even adjusting for Marcus' political leanings, it was striking to hear that tone about the economy from a business leader.
And then, I wake up at 4 am on Saturday and find these comments on the economy from Jefferies Chief Economist Aneta Markowska:
"After a ’stronger for longer‘ expansion, we envision a recession that comes later than consensus currently expects but hits the economy much harder than anticipated. Consensus expects a mild recession starting in Q1 and lasting about 3 quarters. We believe it will start later (around Q3) and last longer (5 quarters)."
Jefferies: The recession of 2023 may really suck. pic.twitter.com/i3hVAw6ZGc
— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) October 15, 2022
Aneta isn't one of those fear-mongering newsletter hawkers. She is one of the best in the game at what she does. So to hear this super negative tone on the economic outlook surprised me.
All of this brings me to today and the 9th Annual Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit, which airs live all day on yahoofinance.com, YouTube, Roku, our lovely app, and elsewhere. If you aren’t watching, keep an eye on our social media feeds — particularly Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, and TikTok — as the news from our interviews will be distributed everywhere.
Yours truly will be speaking with Target CEO Brian Cornell, Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol, Hilton CEO Chris Nassetta, and Linkedin co-founder Reid Hoffman. The Yahoo Finance team will also have chats with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Paramount CEO Bob Bakish, GM CEO Mary Barra, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel, Yahoo CEO Jim Lanzone, and others.
This is a who's who of global business. And given the tone I’ve been hearing about the economy, I’ve got some important questions for these leaders:
1) Is inflation peaking?
2) Is the economy already in a recession?
3) What parts of your business are slowing down and why?
4) Have you frozen hiring?
5) Are you planning layoffs before year end?
6) What are the three biggest projects you working on for 2023 and why?
7) Do you trust the Federal Reserve to get it right?
8) Valuations have been hammered on businesses. Are you a buyer? When?
9) How bad will Europe's economy get in 2023?
10) Biggest economic takeaway you heard from a peer in the past month?
Enjoy the festival of finance that the YF team has worked to prepare for you!
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