Danny Garcia is hoping to claim some late-career magic, and gets to battle a foe in a similar predicament this weekend. Our boxing betting picks explain why he should have his way with the bigger, slower Jose Benavidez on Saturday night.
Danny Garcia vs. Jose Benavidez is scheduled for 12 rounds in the junior middleweight division and is the headlining fight for this weekend’s Premier Boxing Champions card in Brooklyn. These are desperate days for Garcia and Benavidez, and a loss at this stage will be career-threatening.
Let’s break down the boxing odds for our best Garcia vs. Benavidez picks and predictions for July 30.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 27, 2022.
Picks made on July 27. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
When we last saw Garcia, he was defeated and punished against Errol Spence last November where he displayed his trademark tentativeness. Spence outworked Garcia, mostly behind a solid jab and body punching, handing him his third loss against the welterweight elite. The former two-division champion hopes some time off and a new weight class reignites the fire, but at 34, he has to prove there’s still something left in the tank.
Garcia is known for his deadly left hook and excellent timing. He has 21 knockouts in 36 wins, possesses sound boxing fundamentals, a good jab, and a seemingly impenetrable chin. A big boost for Garcia will be fighting in front of a friendly crowd of fellow Puerto Ricans in Brooklyn, but an even bigger boost is that he couldn’t have picked a better opponent to move up against.
In some ways, Benavidez’s journey mirrored Garcia at one point. A prodigious jr. welterweight who many thought would be the next big thing in a deepening welterweight arena, Benavidez continues to fight despite diminishing skills. Better known nowadays as David Benavidez’s brother, Jose was bailed out by the judges in his last fight, fighting the unknown Francisco Torres to a majority draw.
At one time, Benavidez was a mobile power puncher who was equal parts tough and slick. After a 2016 shooting where he took a bullet to the leg, Benavidez has become more stationary and reliant on his power. He’s scored 18 knockouts in 27 wins and will tower over Garcia in the ring. The Arizona native will have a height advantage of three inches, and is four and a half inches longer than Garcia.
On paper, this looks to be a fight that will be fought in close quarters. Benavidez’s lack of mobility and Garcia’s lack of activity all but ensures these two will be sizing each other up in the middle of the ring, hoping to land a big shot. Benavidez has to be the active fighter while being cautious of Garcia’s debilitating counter hook. Garcia has to fight like a revitalized man and force his way inside, breaking him down to the body and looking for a left-hook home run.
Benavidez survived the shooting incident, but it’s increasingly clear that his career didn’t. No longer able to command the movement and dexterity shown prior to the accident, he’s now reduced to a rudimentary power puncher that has been plagued by inactivity and declining skills. Had this fight occurred prior to 2016, he would have had the style to torment Garcia — now, it’s the opposite.
Garcia has been in the ring with some of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and while he hasn’t always won, he’s been competitive. His low-impact style of fighting makes it believable that he can still perform at an elite level, though he’s just as undersized at junior middleweight as Benavidez is. Unless proven otherwise, Garcia is still a top fighter whereas Benavidez remains a lost opportunity.
Because he’ll resort to one-dimensional slugging and will leave himself open to counters, Benavidez won’t have much to offer here. In this crossroads bout between two fighters looking for one last run in unfamiliar territory, we’re going with Garcia to win his 154 lbs. debut.
Pick: Garcia moneyline (-800 at DraftKings)
Benavidez is going to play right into Garcia’s heavy hands, even if he does decide to try and keep the fight on the outside with his considerable physical advantages. While he certainly can keep the fight interesting early, Garcia is the better fighter and will not struggle to find an opportunity to open Benavidez up.
With Garcia being the fresher and more active of the two, it won’t take him long to bypass Benavidez’s guard and walk the younger fighter down to the ropes. As the fight swings back to his control, it’s expected that Garcia will potshot and retreat for the remainder of the fight and pick up a routine decision. The call here is that Garcia beats Benavidez on the cards for a -145 pickup.
Pick: Garcia to Win by Decision (-145 at DraftKings)
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