Fair and generally dry conditions will start the work week. Winds will weaken Monday and Tuesday, which means you can expect afternoon clouds over leeward and interior sections. However, the airmass over the islands remains rather dry, so any pop-up showers will be light. The exception will be Hawaii Island, where an area of increased moisture could move in Tuesday afternoon.
Now for the later half of the week: forecast models are showing a weakening cold front pushing through the western islands Wednesday before stalling over the eastern islands. Winds will be light with pockets of heavy showers ahead of the front, with showery conditions and gusty northerly winds behind it.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty over how much rain we’ll get. If a disturbance developing to the north gets strong enough, moderate southerly winds could pull up more tropical moisture over the state, resulting in more rain and humidity. If it’s not that strong, we’ll have just lingering frontal moisture with scattered showers. We’ll keep you posted as the forecast becomes clearer with time.
In surf, a moderate northwest swell should peak Sunday night and Monday very close to the 15-foot higher surf advisory threshold for north shores. A larger but shorter-period north swell is forecast to push surf to advisory levels again Wednesday night and early Thursday. Surf on south shores will remain small ahead of a series of slightly larger swells Wednesday through Saturday.
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