HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – As a cold front makes its way to the islands this week, the rainy conditions serve as a potential indicator of what’s to come over the next several months.
The National Weather Service released its outlook Wednesday for the upcoming wet season and above average precipitation is in the forecast.
Hawaii residents don’t need to think back too far to get a sense of how intense the rainy season get.
March 2021 brought historic flooding in Haleiwa and along Oahu’s north shore as stream levels rose to their highest in nearly 50 years.
“Just all along, Hauula, Punaluu, that area of Kahuku that was a big rain event and that produced record breaking flow within Opaeula stream,” said National Weather Service senior hydrologist Kevin Kodama.
“So even aside from what the statistics show, it’s an indication of how severe our events can be.”
Looking ahead to the next six months, the projections are very similar ― as Hawaii will be in a La Nina event for a third straight year, which has only happened twice since 1950.
La Nina typically indicates more rain for windward areas.
“Because of our terrain, that rainfall distribution really depends on how the strength of the La Nina shapes up,” Kodama explained. “So if you have a stronger La Nina event, where you have more persistent trade wind conditions and you end up having wet conditions over the windward slopes, the leeward areas remain dry.”
For some spots, that means really dry.
Leeward areas of the Big island are experiencing drought and this year, Maui’s drought levels went from from extreme to exceptional.
“Some of the pastures are just dirt,” Kodama said. “It’s just in really bad shape. It’s not just one event that can solve it all. You talk to ranchers and they say, we need multiple events to get the soil waste for water to percolate down and restore the soil moisture.”
While NOAA’s models don’t highlight exactly when the rains will be coming down, Kodama says he’s noticed that March has typically become the most active month of the wet season.
But severe weather can develop within moments.
“It can be not raining on one side, but just incredible impact on the other side of the mountain, so you never know, always stay tuned,” Kodama said. “Always stay on your toes. always be prepared this time of year.”
This story will be updated.
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