A pair of old Big Ten rivals meet up in the conference opener as Michigan State hosts Minnesota in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.
Michigan State returns home after a costly loss at Washington, dropping out of the top 25 rankings, while Minnesota is perfect through 3 games, outscoring opponents 149-17.
What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
Week 4 college football schedule: Michigan State vs. Minnesota
Football Power Index is going with the home team this week, as Michigan State has the 60.8 percent chance to defeat the Gophers on Saturday.
Minnesota has the 39.2 percent shot to beat the Spartans on the road.
The oddsmakers take an alternate view, naming Minnesota as the narrow 3 point favorites, according to the line set at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 51 points.
Michigan State checks in at No. 16 overall in the latest 131 college football rankings set by the index computer, and is projected to win 6.9 games on the season after moving down 5 spots following last week's loss.
MSU is an estimated 13.0 points better on average than the teams on its schedule, according to FPI projections.
Minnesota moved up 5 spots to the No. 18 position on the index, projected to win 8.9 games on the year and be 12.3 points better than its opponents.
AP top 25 voters did not include either team in their latest Week 4 poll
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
According to AP top 25 poll
Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Facebook