Poland General Election: Shifting Political Landscape and Coalition Prospects

In Poland’s general election, the right-wing populist Law and Justice party, known as PiS, appears to be leading with 36.8% of the vote, according to an exit poll by Ipsos. However, the party is unlikely to secure a third term in office. The centrist opposition is following closely with 31.6%, which indicates that Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition may have a chance to form a coalition government.

Donald Tusk, who aims to end eight years of PiS rule led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, addressed jubilant supporters in Warsaw, expressing confidence in his campaign. He stated, “Poland won, democracy has won,” and described it as the end of the PiS government. The exit poll results surprised supporters, and turnout was reported to be 72.9%, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989.

Despite PiS likely winning around 200 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, it falls short of the 231 seats needed for a majority. The far-right Confederation party, whose leader acknowledged a worse-than-expected outcome, is unlikely to provide much support with its projected 12 seats.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski had portrayed his rival as a puppet of Berlin and Brussels, emphasizing his party’s anti-migration policies. Donald Tusk has framed the vote as Poland’s most critical since the end of communism and vital for its future in the European Union. He aims to improve relations with the EU and access €36bn (£30bn) of EU Covid pandemic recovery funds frozen due to PiS judicial reforms.

If the exit poll’s initial findings from 90,000 voters hold, Donald Tusk’s party has a better chance of forming a broad coalition, potentially involving the center-right Third Way and left-wing Lewica.

As the polls closed, PiS supporters put on a brave face despite the exit poll suggesting a loss of 35 seats since the 2019 election. Party members remained hopeful of forming a government.

The high voter turnout and the significance of this election make it a pivotal moment in Poland’s political landscape and its place within the European Union.

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