We’re heading into the World Cup-enforced break of the 2022-23 Premier League season, and the table seems to have taken shape – but can any clubs feel lucky or hard done by?
Manchester City and Arsenal have started to pull away from the rest of the chasing pack, but have their results reflected the quality of their performances?
Meanwhile, sides like Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool have had their struggles this season in terms of results, but what about the underlying performances?
The Expected Goals (xG) metric uses a complex algorithm to determine the quality of chances that each side has created and conceded this season, giving us a useful tool to measure how good their performances have actually been, regardless of the scorelines.
With data from Understat, here are the tables in terms of Expected Goals so far this season.
1. Manchester City – 29.14
2. Arsenal – 27.26
3. Newcastle United – 27.07
4. Liverpool – 26.84
5. Brighton – 24.07
6. Tottenham – 23.51
7. Brentford – 20.16
8. Fulham – 19.81
9. Leeds United – 19.47
10. West Ham United – 18.87
11. Manchester United – 18.47
12. Chelsea – 16.45
13. Aston Villa – 16.20
14. Everton – 15.45
15. Southampton – 14.72
16. Leicester City – 14.63
17. Nottingham Forest – 14.29
18. Crystal Palace – 14.15
19. Wolves – 13.71
20. Bournemouth – 10.87
As expected, City and Arsenal haven’t been lucky this season – their attacks really are just that efficient. Newcastle United are comfortably in the top four in terms of the quality of the chances they create, while Brighton and Brentford will also be pleased.
Chelsea and Manchester United fans will be nodding sagely at the numbers that indicate their team has much to improve on.
At the other end of the table, you see relegation battlers Wolves, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth struggle quite dramatically in terms of fashioning chances, while West Ham aren’t doing too shabbily in that regard – their underwhelming season has its origins in their failure to take such chances.
1. Manchester City – 9.87
2. Arsenal – 11.30
3. Brighton – 14.91
4. Manchester United – 15.64
5. West Ham United – 15.92
6. Tottenham – 16.35
7. Newcastle United – 17.09
8. Wolves – 18.50
9. Crystal Palace – 19.02
10. Leeds United – 19.70
11. Leicester City – 20.36
12. Southampton – 20.41
13. Chelsea – 20.51
14. Aston Villa – 20.51
15. Brentford – 21.03
16. Liverpool – 21.66
17. Everton – 22.92
18. Bournemouth – 24.64
19. Nottingham Forest – 25.57
20. Fulham – 29.93
Reigning champions City are also out in front in this regard, while Arsenal’s impressive season is borne out with their defensive numbers.
Elsewhere, Newcastle are quite considerably overperforming in terms of their actual goals conceded (six fewer), while Chelsea are shockingly all the way down in 13th in terms of the quality of chances they allow the opposition.
Once again, this chart doesn’t make pretty reading for Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest – and Liverpool.
1. Manchester City – 30.51
2. Arsenal – 28.43
3. Brighton – 24.56
4. Newcastle United – 20.42
5. Tottenham – 23.95
6. West Ham United – 21.16
7. Liverpool – 20.19
8. Manchester United – 19.96
9. Brentford – 19.66
10. Aston Villa – 18.85
11. Leeds United – 17.92
12. Southampton – 15.39
13. Wolves – 15.27
14. Chelsea – 15.25
15. Leicester City – 14.97
16. Fulham – 14.92
17. Crystal Palace – 14.63
18. Everton – 13.95
19. Nottingham Forest – 12.77
20. Bournemouth – 10.93
Expected Points (xPTS) uses the for and against xG on a game-by-game basis to determine how many points a side should have taken.
Once again, City and Arsenal are comfortably in front in that regard, with Brighton and Newcastle enjoying excellent seasons.
West Ham, facing an unexpected relegation battle, will weep at their side’s sixth position while Chelsea supporters will be alarmed to see their side in lower mid-table.
Forest and Bournemouth are unsurprisingly in the bottom two, the table doesn’t lie after all, while Everton will be sweating over their side’s mediocre season to date.
READ MORE: The PL ‘big six’ head-to-head table in 22-23: Arsenal 2nd, Spurs last…
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